Q1 Letter - 2021

The base case for 2021 is that as the economy reopens, earnings growth will return, cash stimulus and quantitative easing will subside, and rising interest rates will cause a slow train wreck for stratospheric equity valuations.

MiradorApril 7, 2021

Bubble Shooter

In today’s market environment, managing risk in a portfolio can be difficult. Some investors will beat themselves up for missing out on what may turn out to be one of the largest bubbles of our lifetimes, while others will never forgive themselves for not getting out in time.

MiradorFebruary 12, 2021

Q4 Letter - 2020

The struggles of 2020 flooded into 2021 as the deadly virus continues to spread, and now our American Republic is being tested in ways we have never before experienced.

MiradorJanuary 7, 2021

IPO and SPAC Frenzy

As long as there is enough liquidity in the private markets, and putting aside the widespread marketing that accompanies a traditional IPO, there aren’t many other compelling reasons why a growing company with a promising future would choose to go public. So why has this trend suddenly reversed in 2020? Why are companies suddenly choosing to go public rather than stay private?

MiradorNovember 6, 2020

Small Business Optimism Index

The September Small Business Survey report by the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) reflects a newfound degree of optimism amidst the uncertainty headed into the final quarter of 2020.

MiradorOctober 20, 2020

Q3 Letter - 2020

America has been through a lot over the past two weeks, and it’s almost the worst I've ever seen.

MiradorOctober 12, 2020

Market Fragility

An important metric we track is the spread between equity valuations and treasury yields. We often leverage this spread as a relative valuation tool, allowing us to quantify the incremental risk investors take on when moving up the risk asset curve and investing in stocks.

MiradorOctober 6, 2020

2020 Sector Observations

Since the beginning of the Coronavirus, there’s been much speculation about which businesses will recover, which will falter, and to what degree.

MiradorSeptember 10, 2020

Q2 Letter - 2020

Despite the 3,600 businesses that have filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy and 40 million who lost their jobs, the CARES Act has made the individual consumer filthy cash rich.

MiradorJuly 10, 2020