The S&P 500 rallied sharply into the end of the year, closing with an 11.7% gain in Q4’2023 despite a weak start with a 2.1% decline in October.
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Q3 2023 was the first quarterly decline for the US stock market (the S&P 500) for the year, down roughly 3.5%.
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The 2nd quarter of 2023 was another pleasant surprise, although much of the market returns were concentrated in the largest technology companies everyone is familiar with.
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The first quarter of 2023 was a pleasant surprise in the financial market indexes.
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2022 was a historically difficult year to navigate in the financial markets. It was the worst year since the Great Depression for a conservative 60% stock / 40% bond portfolio.
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U.S. equities remained relatively flat this quarter as the bear market rally, fueled by cooling inflation expectations, succumbed to hotter than expected August CPI data.
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Mirador expects valuations to continue declining mainly driven by an aggressive central bank tightening cycle which includes a terminal Fed Funds rate of 3.5% and trillions of dollars taken out of the economy.
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The Federal Reserve AKA “The Fed”, which is America’s Central Bank, is in the beginning innings of a rate hike cycle intended to curb spending, which would reduce inflationary pressure.
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SMBs still have access to loans and continue to maintain earnings but are having difficulty filling new roles.
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Most leading economic indicators showing yields may be overdone. No material change in 2023 rate cut expectations.
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The Fed has already started to tighten financial conditions by increasing interest rates, and has shifted its sentiment on monetary policy from “tactical” to “expeditious”.
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